The habitat use-collision risk model

The term “probabilistics” (also called “probability theory”) refers to the process of estimating or predicting probabilities. In order to be able to make these predictions, mathematical models of the underlying process are usually combined with an analysis of collected data.

The mathematical model has to be as close to reality as possible and the empirical data used has to be as reliable as possible. However, the latter are usually associated with random processes that also need to be considered in the right context.

A collision risk model (CRM) is such a probabilistic model that should estimate the risk (i.e. the probability) of a collision under specific conditions (e.g. depending on location, bird species and/or wind turbine) as accurately as possible.

The habitat use-collision risk model (Raumnutzungs-Kollisionsrisikomodell – RKR) is the continuation and completion of the approach formerly known as the hybrid model.

The habitat use-collision risk model was preceded by a pilot study (Mercker et al. 2023).

Aim of this pilot study was to develop and test probabilistic methods to determine the project-related mortality risk of breeding bird species at risk of collision with wind turbines.

To this end, existing modelling approaches and available data were evaluated. The authors developed a new preliminary model (hybrid model), which describes the basic aspects of habitat use and the collision risk per flight through the rotor swept area based on the example of the red kite.

In the follow-up study published in 2024 (Mercker et al. 2024a), the hybrid model developed in the pilot study was further evaluated and refined to improve its practicability.

Several improvements were made, among others in relation to the prediction of habitat use and the avoidance behaviour of red kites near wind turbines. The result of the revisions is a habitat use-collision risk model (Raumnutzungs-Kollisionsrisikomodell – RKR).

So far, the study has focused on the red kite. Plans are in place to test the model for possible application for white-tailed eagles and white storks in 2024.